2nd International Seminar on Probabilistic Methodologies for Nuclear Applications
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
October 25–26, 2017
Hosted by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), this seminar is a technical exchange among experts from regulators to utilities to academia on the practical application of probabilistic methodologies used to evaluate nuclear power plant components.
- Seminar format
- Background on the seminar
- Call for presentations
- Location and accommodations
- Language of the seminar and proceedings material
- Registration and participation
- Submitted abstracts
Presentations related to the application of probabilistic methodologies in nuclear industry applications are currently being solicited. Several presentations followed by discussion will be planned according to the suggested topics below. It is expected that approximately 16 presentations will be scheduled over the course of the two days, followed by an open panel session. Suggested topics of discussion include:
- Probabilistic fracture mechanics
- Probabilistic fracture protection
- Probabilistic leak-before-break
- Uncertainty analysis
- Development of input parameter distributions
- Risk-informed assessments
- Regulatory acceptance of probabilistic assessments
- Development of probabilistic modelling software
Background on the seminar
Deterministic assessments that include an assessment of the impact of postulated service-induced degradation for nuclear power plant pressure boundary components can generate conservative conclusions. As a result, there is increased interest in the nuclear industry in the use of probabilistic methodologies to evaluate the risk of component failure, but currently, there are no generally accepted methodologies for conducting these types of evaluations. This seminar provides a venue for sharing information and experience related to the use of various probabilistic assessment methods.
This is the second seminar organized by the CNSC on this subject. The first seminar was in October 2013, with participants from Canada, the United States, Finland, Germany, Romania, Czech Republic and Switzerland.
Call for presentations
Participants wishing to present are required to submit an abstract (200 to 400 words). All abstracts should be submitted by July 31, 2017. (Note: All abstracts and extended summaries submitted by email must be in MS Word, in "Times New Roman 11" font.)
The organizing committee will review abstracts, and authors will be notified by August 15, 2017. Authors of accepted presentations should submit, by email, their extended summary and presentation by October 1, 2017. Presentations are not to exceed 20 minutes.
Copyright transfer forms will be provided upon acceptance of the presentation abstract and will need to be submitted with the final presentation.
Suggestion: After the seminar, authors may consider submitting a detailed paper on the content of their presentation to the ASME Journal of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Science. The journal may accept paper submissions that have been presented at the 2nd International Seminar on Probabilistic Methodologies for Nuclear Applications. For more information visit the ASME Journal website.
Location and accommodations:
The workshop will be held in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, Ontario, during Canada’s 150th anniversary year. There will be lots to see and do!
John G. Diefenbaker Building
111 Sussex Drive, Bytown Pavillion
To learn more about where to stay and what to do while in Ottawa, visit:
Language of the seminar and proceedings material
All presentations and discussions will be in English. A CD containing all presentations will be compiled and distributed at the end of the workshop. Presentations may be published on the CNSC’s website.
Key dates at a glance
Presentation abstracts due by: July 31, 2017
Accepted presenters notified by: August 15, 2017
Extended summary and presentations due by: October 1, 2017
Last day for participation registration: September 15, 2017
Seminar program emailed to participants by: September 15, 2017
Seminar: October 25–26, 2017
Registration and participation
Participation is open to experts from regulatory authorities and their technical support organizations; research organizations; nuclear power plant owners, operators, designers and vendors; and industry associations.
Advanced registration is required, as seats will be limited. There is no fee to participate. Travel and accommodation costs are the responsibility of participants. Registration must be completed by September 15, 2017.
Please read the Privacy Statement before completing this form. All fields marked with an asterisk (*) are required. If you have difficulty with the following form, contact us at the coordinates below.
The number of participants who can be accommodated is limited and therefore the workshop organizers may restrict participation.
|Regulatory Approach to the Use of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics at Nuclear Power Plants in the United States||David Alley||U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA|
|Regulatory Perspective on PFM and Risk-Informed Methodologies in Sweden||Björn Brickstad||Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm, Sweden|
|Developments in Probabilistic Methodologies at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission||Michael L. Benson, Matthew J. Homiack, Patrick A.C. Raynaud and Mark T. Kirk||U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA|
|Guideline on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels||Yinsheng Li, Jinya Katsuyama and Koichi Masaki||Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki-ken, Japan|
|Efficient Probabilistic Methods for Leak-Before-Break Analysis||Klaus Heckmann and Jürgen Sievers||GRS Global Research for Safety, Cologne, Germany|
|Probabilistic Fracture Protection Methodology and Acceptance Criteria for CANDU Zr-Nb Pressure Tubes||Douglas Scarth and Leonid Gutkin Danny Mok and Chris Manu||Kinectrics, Inc., Toronto, ON, Canada Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, ON, Canada|
|Target Reliability as an Acceptance Criterion for Component Failure within a Systems Approach to Nuclear Structural Integrity Assessment||Michael Martin and Keith Wright||Rolls-Royce, Derby, UK|
|Effect of Inspection Sample Size on Reliability of Reactor Components||Mahesh D. Pandey||University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada|
|Structural Integrity Criteria and Performance Acceptance Standards for Fully Probabilistic Assessments of Steam Generator Tubing||Russell C. Cipolla||Intertek AIM, Santa Clara, CA, USA|
|Probabilistic Fracture Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Components||U. O. Akpan, T. S. Koko and S. Rathnayaka||Applied Technology Group, Lloyds Register, Halifax, NS, Canada|
|Gaussian Process Regression for Classification of Baffle Bolts Failures for Prediction of Spatially Correlated Bolt Failures in Similar Pressurized Water Reactors||Joseph Cluever||LPI, Richland, WA, USA|
|Application of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics to Seismic Fragility Analysis of Piping Systems||Kisaburo Azuma, Yoshihito Yamaguchi, Jinya Katsuyama and Yinsheng Li||Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority, Tokyo, Japan Nuclear Safety Research Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Japan|
|Structural Behavior of Nuclear Piping under Beyond Design Basis Dynamic Loading||Xinjian Duan||Candu Energy Inc, Mississauga, ON, Canada|
|A Common Framework to Deal with Uncertainties of Computer Code Results||E. Chojnacki, J. Baccou, F. Fouet and P. Probst||Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Cadarache, France|
|Uncertainty Analysis of the Behaviour of Nuclear Fuels||Armando Marino||Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Bustillo Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina|
|Uncertainty Analysis in Probabilistic Fitness-for-Service Evaluations of Zr-2.5Nb Pressure Tubes||Christopher Manu||Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario, Canada|
|Leonid Gutkin||Kinectrics, Inc., Toronto, Ontario, Canada|
|Sensitivity Analysis on Input Parameters of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Code, PRO-LOCA 5.0||Sun-Hye Kim, Sang-Min Lee, Ho-Sang Shin and Yong-Beom Kim||Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Republic of Korea|
|Man-Won Kim||Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Republic of Korea|
|Sun-Yeh Kang||KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company Inc., Republic of Korea|
|Global Sensitivity Analysis of xLPR using Metamodeling||Chris Casarez, Markus Burkardt and Glenn White||Dominion Engineering, Inc., Reston, VA, USA|
|Craig Harrington||Electric Power Research Institute, Dallas, TX, USA|
|Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Probabilistic LBB Analyses: Methods and Applications||Cédric Sallaberry and Robert Kurth||Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus, Columbus, OH, USA|
|Uncertainty Evaluation of CANDU Fuel Performance Based on Statistical Method||Kang Moon Lee and Joon Suk Ji||KEPCO Nuclear Fuel, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, Korea|
|A New Benchmark on Probabilistic Integrity Assessment of RPV||Miroslav Posta||UJV Rez, a. s., Hlavni Husinec, Czech Republic|
|Determination of Optimal Sample Sizes for Flaw Inspection Using Bayesian Approaches||Wenxing Zhou||University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada|
|Speculative Reflections on the Raw Data Scatter Accounting for the Allowable Temperature Shift for RPV Lifetime Assessment||I.V. Orynyak and M.M. Zarazovski||IPP-Centre Ltd, Kiev, Ukraine|
|Framework for Probabilistic Methodology Development and Gaining Regulatory Acceptance||Elizabeth Holliday||Amec Foster Wheeler Nuclear Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada|
|Analysis of Fault Tolerant Design Methods and Architectures for Digital I&C Systems Using the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology||Phillip McNelles, Zhao Chang Zeng, Guna Renganathan and Marius Chirila Lixuan Lu||Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON, Canada University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, ON, Canada|
For assistance with administrative details or for further information, please contact one of the CNSC’s organizing committee members:
Dr. Bogdan Wasiluk
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
280 Slater Street
P.O. Box 1046, Station B
Ottawa, ON K1P 5S9
Telephone: +1 613 996 0804
Fax: +1 613 995 5086
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